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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both composes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Arguments cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has something to gain from the other's arguments."

Request for More Extensive Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."